The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has unveiled its climate projection for October to December 2023, pointing to an increased likelihood of heightened rainfall across the Greater Horn of Africa.
In specific regions like southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, there is a distinct probability of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall. In contrast, some isolated areas in southwestern Uganda and southwestern South Sudan might encounter drier conditions.
Dr. Guleid Artan, Director of ICPAC, emphasizes the arrival of El Niño conditions, which typically correlate with increased rainfall in Eastern Africa during the October-December period.
IGAD raises concerns about potential disruptions caused by the upcoming rains. While these projections could bring relief after a severe three-year drought, there’s a possibility they could lead to negative outcomes. The issue of desert locust proliferation in certain areas increases the risk of serious consequences.
Recollections of the last El Niño rains in 2015/16 evoke memories of torrents that triggered landslides, flash floods, and structural collapses.
IGAD offers guidance to governments and disaster management agencies, underscoring the importance of taking necessary measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods.
Read Also: Election Observers From EU, EAC & IGAD Deployed to Kenya
Dr. Hussen Seid, an expert in Climate Modelling at ICPAC, delves into the mechanics of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon characterized by cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean. Its far-reaching effects influence global weather patterns.
The October to December period holds pivotal significance, contributing 20-70% of the annual total rainfall, especially in the equatorial regions of the Greater Horn of Africa. An early onset of rainfall is anticipated in specific areas like eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania.
In contrast, predictions suggest an average or delayed onset in northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania.
ICPAC, designated as Eastern Africa’s Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization, forges its seasonal forecasts through meticulous analysis of historical data, prevailing climate indicators, and advanced modeling techniques.
Subscribe to Switch TV
Anticipations for October-December 2023 suggest a consolidated temperature forecast from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) indicating a higher likelihood of warmer-than-usual surface temperatures, particularly encompassing Djibouti, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and segments of the coastal Tanzanian region.
