Trump Administration’s Foreign Aid Slash Projected to Trigger 14 Million Deaths by 2030
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new report published warns that President Donald Trump’s decision to cut U.S. foreign aid could result in over 14 million preventable deaths worldwide by 2030. A third of the projected deaths would involve children under five.
The projection follows the Trump administration’s sweeping move to eliminate over 80% of U.S. humanitarian programs under the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the cuts in March, stating that remaining aid efforts would be transferred to the State Department for “more effective oversight.”
The study analyzed two decades of health outcomes across 133 countries. It concluded that USAID programs saved 91 million lives between 2001 and 2021. Researchers modeled future scenarios using the 83% reduction figure announced earlier this year and found that without urgent reversal, millions of vulnerable lives could be lost.
“For many low-income countries, the effect will feel like a global pandemic or war,” said Davide Rasella, one of the study’s co-authors, in a statement. He warned that halting aid “threatens to undo 20 years of health gains.”
The findings come amid a high-stakes UN humanitarian summit in Seville, Spain, where global leaders are discussing emergency funding for threatened aid programs. This is the largest international aid conference in a decade.
The U.S. has long been the largest single donor of humanitarian assistance, working in over 60 countries. The current administration has accused USAID of funding liberal-leaning initiatives and has shifted aid priorities under the influence of former presidential adviser Elon Musk, who championed sharp cost-cutting measures across federal agencies.
Though the administration says about 1,000 programs will remain intact, on-the-ground conditions in countries like Kenya suggest the situation is dire.
At refugee camps in Kakuma, in northwestern Kenya, UN workers have reported record-low food rations after U.S. funds were pulled. One official described the conditions as “people slowly starving.” At a local hospital, journalists documented cases of malnourished children, including an infant who was visibly weak and suffering from skin peeling signs of acute nutritional deficiency.
Despite the administration’s defense of the cuts, the numbers presented in the report paint a stark picture. If trends continue, over 4.5 million children under five could die from causes tied to the loss of U.S.-funded health interventions, averaging 700,000 child deaths annually over the next five years.
While the Trump administration insists the cuts are part of an effort to restructure foreign assistance, international health experts caution that lives are at stake.
“Redirecting aid without replacing its life-saving functions will lead to widespread loss of life. The evidence is clear,” said one researcher involved in the analysis.
As world leaders debate next steps in Seville, the future of global health support from the U.S. remains uncertain, and the stakes for the world’s poorest communities continue to rise.
