The United States and China emerged from a weekend of high-stakes trade talks in Geneva with cautious optimism and promises of more to come—though the fine print remains elusive.
After months of icy silence and spiralling tariffs, senior officials from both sides met face-to-face at a private residence near Lake Geneva, hoping to cool tensions that have shaken global markets and strained political ties.
“We’ve made substantial progress between the United States and China in these very important trade talks,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday, standing before a bank of cameras but taking no questions. He added that a full briefing would follow on Monday.
His Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, struck a similar note. “The discussions were candid, in-depth and constructive,” He told reporters. “This is an important first step.”
According to officials, the two sides are preparing a joint statement outlining next steps. Details remained tightly guarded, though both countries confirmed the creation of a new framework for regular discussions on trade and commerce.
Li Chenggang, China’s international trade envoy, was more colourful. Asked whether the announcement would come before global markets reopened, he smiled. “If the dishes are delicious, timing is not a matter,” he said. “Whenever released, it is going to be big, good news.”
A Standoff Easing, but Tariffs Still Loom
The Geneva meeting marked the first direct engagement at this level since President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports—some as high as 145 percent. China responded in kind, with retaliatory duties reaching 125 percent on select American goods.
While Trump appeared to soften his stance online, hinting that an “80% Tariff on China seems right!”, the White House quickly clarified its position.
“There will be no unilateral tariff cuts,” said Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. “China must come to the table with real concessions.”
Still, there are signs both sides want a way forward.
“This is good news for business and for the financial markets,” said Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. But he remained cautious. “Even a tariff rate of 70 or 80 percent could effectively cut trade volumes in half.”
Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator now with the Asia Society Policy Institute, echoed the mix of hope and hesitation. “The fact they talked for more than 15 hours is significant,” she said. “But without the details, it’s hard to assess whether this was a breakthrough or simply a beginning.”
Global Stakes, Local Pressure
The stakes go far beyond the two countries involved.
“This progress is important not only for the US and China but for the rest of the world, including the most vulnerable economies,” said World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She met separately with He Lifeng over the weekend.
Back home, both leaders are under pressure. Trump faces criticism over inflation and business uncertainty, while Chinese officials are contending with an economy that, while still growing, has faced export hurdles due to sanctions and tariffs.
Yet there was an unexpected twist: China’s exports rose last month, defying expectations. Analysts credit a rerouting of trade flows through Southeast Asia, skirting some of the worst tariff impacts.
The Road Ahead
This weekend’s talks follow Trump’s surprise announcement of a mini trade pact with Britain. That deal, while largely symbolic and non-binding, was seen by investors as a possible shift toward more targeted trade diplomacy.
On Sunday, Trump took to social media once again. “GREAT PROGRESS!!” he wrote, adding that “we want to see, for the good of both China and the U.S., an opening up of China to American business.”
Yet seasoned observers say we’re still in the early innings.
“The devil will be in the details,” said Cutler. “Progress is one thing. Implementation is another.”
All eyes now turn to the joint communique expected Monday—an indication, perhaps, of whether this Geneva gathering marks the beginning of a thaw or merely a temporary truce.
