By Nixon Ngari
Behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, 133 cardinals are now deep in deliberation. Their task is monumental: elect a new pope to lead the Catholic Church in a world facing war, division, and moral reckoning.
The conclave began this afternoon inside the 15th-century chapel, beneath the gaze of Michelangelo’s frescoes. To be chosen, a candidate must receive two-thirds of the vote—a minimum of 89 cardinals in agreement. There is no clear favourite.
With 80% of electors appointed by Pope Francis, most are casting their first vote in a conclave. For the first time, fewer than half are European. The centre of Catholic power has clearly shifted—and so too, perhaps, has the future direction of the Church.
This is a look at the key contenders—and why each faces both hope and hesitation.
Pietro Parolin, 70 — The Diplomatic Insider
🇮🇹 Italy
As Francis’ Secretary of State, Parolin was effectively the Vatican’s second-in-command. A seasoned diplomat, his experience is unmatched.
Supporters say he brings a global perspective and knows how to navigate power quietly. But critics argue he focuses too much on politics and too little on doctrine. He’s also been accused by watchdog groups of suppressing abuse reports during his tenure—a charge he has not publicly addressed.
Still, bookmakers like his chances. But as an old Vatican saying goes: “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.”
Luis Antonio Tagle, 67 — The ‘Asian Francis’
🇵🇭 Philippines
Tagle is admired for his pastoral warmth and down-to-earth style. Dubbed the “Asian Francis,” he shares the late pope’s focus on migrants and social justice.
He has called abortion “murder” but also urged the Church to show compassion to gay people and single mothers. His softer tone has earned respect—but also suspicion from conservatives.
Critics say he was too muted in speaking out against former President Duterte’s brutal drug war. Others argue that, in a Church dominated by clergy, he represents a rare voice close to the people.
Robert Prevost, 69 — The Bridge Between Americas
🇺🇸 United States
Born in Chicago, Prevost has roots in both North and South America. He served as a missionary in Peru and later led the Vatican office responsible for appointing bishops.
Francis trusted him with shaping the Church’s future leadership, but his record isn’t spotless. Allegations of mishandling abuse claims in Peru have dogged his past, though the local diocese denies wrongdoing.
He is viewed as a reformer—though some say his American background could be a hurdle in a global Church wary of U.S. influence.
Peter Turkson, 76 — The Contender from Africa
🇬🇭 Ghana
Turkson was once the odds-on favourite to become pope in 2013. Energetic and outspoken, he brings charisma and a conservative bent.
He has spoken out against criminalising homosexuality in Africa—a rare stance among African clerics—but once stirred controversy by warning of the spread of Islam in Europe, for which he later apologised.
He may appeal to cardinals seeking a non-European pope with global stature. But some fear his traditionalism may clash with the Church’s more progressive voices.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65 — Defender of the Faith in Congo
🇨🇩 DRC
The Archbishop of Kinshasa has emerged as a serious contender. Respected at home for standing firm against extremists, he balances courage with diplomacy.
He opposes same-sex unions, calling them “intrinsically evil,” yet has also promoted interfaith tolerance. In a 2020 interview, he said: “Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We will work together.”
Such openness may appeal to moderates—but might also give some cardinals pause.
Peter Erdo, 72 — The European Conservative
🇭🇺 Hungary
Erdo is a well-known figure in Europe, with deep ties to both Orthodox churches and African bishops. He has voiced strong opposition to migrant resettlement in Hungary, once calling it “human trafficking.”
Though some see him as too close to Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s nationalist policies, others view him as a reliable conservative voice in a rapidly changing Church.
He could emerge as a compromise pick.
Matteo Zuppi, 69 — Francis’ Peacemaker
🇮🇹 Italy
Zuppi’s record reads like a Vatican CV: peacemaker in Mozambique, envoy to Ukraine and Russia, and advocate for LGBTQ Catholics.
He helped secure the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia and has spoken openly about bridging divides within the Church. But his closeness to Francis may hurt him among those seeking a break from the current papacy.
Still, his combination of diplomacy, humility, and global awareness makes him one to watch.
Joseph Tobin, 73 — The American Unifier
🇺🇸 United States
The Archbishop of Newark has earned a reputation for being both warm and forthright. A strong supporter of Francis, he’s advocated for welcoming same-sex couples and even floated the idea of female cardinals.
Born in Detroit, the eldest of 13, Tobin represents the working-class Catholic tradition. Some fear he’s too aligned with American liberalism, but others praise his willingness to engage across ideological lines.
Others to Watch
- Mario Grech, 68 (Malta): Architect of Church-wide synod discussions; close to Francis, cautious in tone.
- Reinhard Marx, 71 (Germany): Reformist but tainted by past mishandling of abuse cases; resigned once but was kept by Francis.
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60 (Italy/Jerusalem): Deeply experienced in Middle East affairs, but young and relatively new as cardinal.
- Jean-Marc Aveline, 66 (France): Champion of interfaith dialogue; may struggle without fluent Italian.
- Charles Maung Bo, 76 (Myanmar): Vocal about diversity and conflict; widely respected in Asia.
- Pablo Virgilio David, 66 (Philippines): A fierce critic of Duterte’s abuses, recently elevated; widely seen as a man of conscience.
Outside Shots, Past Their Prime
- Angelo Scola, 83 (Italy): Respected elder statesman; age and timing likely work against him.
- Marc Ouellet, 80 (Canada): Twice a serious contender; now ineligible to vote.
- Robert Sarah, 79 (Guinea): Popular among conservatives, but seen as too rigid for today’s Church.
- Michael Czerny, 78 (Canada): Jesuit ally of Francis; unlikely the cardinals would pick a second Jesuit in a row.
An Unpredictable Outcome
The Church is no longer a European club. Today, it spans barrios in Manila, villages in Ghana, cities in the U.S., and war zones in Gaza and Ukraine. The next pope must speak to them all.
As historian Massimo Faggioli notes: “This is the most international conclave in history. That alone makes predicting the outcome nearly impossible.”
White smoke may rise tomorrow. Or the day after. But one thing is certain: the next pope will inherit not just tradition and vestments—but a world in need of moral clarity, and a Church searching for unity.
