Johannesburg – South Africa is facing a hard truth: its deep reliance on coal could soon cost the country billions in trade revenue and over a million jobs.
A new report by Net Zero Tracker, a coalition of global climate watchdogs, warns that South Africa’s carbon-heavy exports are increasingly at risk. The shift comes as more countries and companies demand cleaner supply chains.
“South Africa is uniquely vulnerable,” said John Lang, the project’s lead. “Its major trade partners are decarbonising. If it doesn’t adjust, the country could be left behind.”
South Africa generates roughly 80 percent of its electricity from coal a figure that places it among the world’s top polluters. It also exports heavily to regions with strict climate goals. According to the report, 78 percent of its $135 billion in exports go to 139 markets that have adopted net zero targets.
That trade supports more than 1.2 million jobs across South Africa’s economy.
If the country doesn’t clean up its supply chains, the consequences could be stark. Carbon tariffs, especially those being introduced in the European Union, could push global buyers elsewhere.
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is one such example. The new policy will impose extra charges on imports from countries that fall short of EU environmental standards. A trial phase began in 2023, with full enforcement expected by 2026.
The South African Reserve Bank has already issued a warning: carbon-based tariffs could slash the country’s exports by as much as 10 percent, with CBAMs alone potentially reducing EU-bound trade by 4 percent by 2030.
Despite the gloomy forecast, the report says South Africa still has options if it moves quickly.
“South Africa has the tools to pivot proven renewables potential, critical minerals, and seats at global tables,” Lang said. He added that the country could position itself as a key supplier in low-emission value chains, especially in green manufacturing and clean energy tech.
Some experts say there’s already momentum. Recent investments in solar and wind farms, coupled with rising global interest in South Africa’s platinum and rare earth reserves, could help steer the economy in a new direction.
Still, critics warn that progress has been too slow.
“There’s been a lot of talk, but not enough action,” said Lindiwe Mazibuko, a climate policy researcher based in Cape Town. “If South Africa wants to compete in the new global economy, it has to take climate seriously not just in policy, but in practice.”
Coal remains a powerful political and economic force in South Africa. But with export markets shifting and climate rules tightening, the pressure to change is building fast.
For now, the question remains: will the country lead the energy transition or be left behind by it?
