Kenya is bracing for a potentially powerful El Niño, with the government placing 18 counties on a high-risk list ahead of the October rains.
Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen said authorities had begun preparing for floods, landslides, disease outbreaks, displacement and damage to roads and other infrastructure.
The warning comes as forecasters see an unusually strong El Niño taking shape in the Pacific. Kenya’s meteorological authorities have put the probability of a very strong event at 81 per cent. They estimate a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into early 2027.
For Kenya, the concern is not simply the amount of rain. It is where that rain falls, how quickly it arrives and whether communities have enough time to prepare.
Counties facing the greatest risk
The government’s assessment identifies several regions where the expected weather could have the most serious consequences.
Along the Coast, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale face risks including flooding, storm surges and coastal erosion. Some communities could also be forced from their homes.
In the Lake Basin, Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori are considered vulnerable to flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have also been identified as high-risk urban centers. Their exposure includes flooding, overwhelmed drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and interruptions to essential services.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok could face a mix of flash floods, landslides and drought-related pressures. Livestock losses and food insecurity are also among the concerns.
In North Eastern Kenya, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera are particularly exposed to water shortages, poor pasture, livestock losses and food insecurity.
Although the assessment refers to 18 counties, Mombasa and Kisumu appear in more than one risk category because of their wider exposure to different hazards.
Government moves to prepare
Murkomen said the areas had been prioritised according to the risks they face.
“Areas exposed to various risks, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage, have been mapped as part of the wider plan to mitigate the effects of El Niño,” he said.
He said national and county emergency teams had been placed on high alert and were being briefed on their responsibilities.
The government has also left room for the list to grow if further assessments identify additional areas at risk.
What the forecasts show
The latest outlook suggests that the heaviest concern for Kenya lies in the October-November period.
Kenya Meteorological Department officials have warned that much of the country could receive above-average rainfall during October and November. They have also cautioned that the eventual impact will depend partly on the behaviour of the Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate pattern that can influence rainfall in East Africa.
That matters because a strong El Niño does not automatically produce the same conditions everywhere. Rainfall can vary sharply from one region to another, and local geography can determine whether heavy rain becomes a flood, a landslide or little more than a passing storm.
Kenya’s own climate outlook also notes that El Niño is commonly associated with increased rainfall in parts of the country, while stressing that long-range forecasts carry uncertainty.
About the Author
