Latest data warns of irreversible damage unless emissions fall sharply and immediately
LONDON — The world is on track to exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within just three years if carbon emissions remain at current levels, according to a new international climate report released this week.
Over 60 leading scientists issued the most updated assessment of global emissions, warning that the remaining “carbon budget” the amount of CO₂ that can be released while still having a 50% chance to stay below the 1.5°C target has dropped to 130 billion metric tons as of early 2025.
At the current global emission rate of roughly 40 billion metric tons annually, that budget could be exhausted before the end of 2027.
“Everything is moving in the wrong direction,” said lead author Piers Forster. “We are witnessing heating and sea-level rise accelerate faster than previously recorded. These outcomes are directly linked to high levels of carbon and methane emissions.”
The 2015 Paris Agreement committed nearly 200 countries to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The aim was to reduce the risks of extreme weather, sea-level rise, and ecosystem collapse.
Yet, fossil fuel use remains widespread, and deforestation continues to destroy critical carbon sinks. The past decade has seen record emissions year after year, and new evidence suggests the situation is worsening, not improving.
Last year, global average air temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C mark over a 12-month period for the first time. While a single year above the limit doesn’t legally breach the Paris Agreement, experts confirm the trend is clear.
The 10-year global average from 2015 to 2024 now stands at 1.24°C above pre-industrial levels. According to projections, warming could officially hit the 1.5°C mark around 2030 unless drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions begin immediately.
The current pace of warming is approximately 0.27°C per decade, far faster than at any time in recorded geological history.
“This is not just about a number,” said climate analyst Joeri Rogelj. “Each fraction of a degree worsens the impacts stronger storms, faster sea-level rise, and more suffering for vulnerable communities.”
The report also highlights that more than 90% of the excess heat in the Earth’s climate system is now absorbed by the oceans. That absorption drives sea-level rise, coral bleaching, and the displacement of marine life.
The rate of global sea-level rise has more than doubled since the 1990s, putting millions living in coastal zones at increasing risk of flooding.
Scientists point to other contributing factors too. A drop in atmospheric aerosols particles that previously helped cool the planet has accelerated net heating in the last decade. Combined with rising emissions, this has pushed the Earth into what they describe as a “critical zone.”
Despite the bleak outlook, the report notes a small window remains to reverse course. Emission growth has slowed slightly in recent years, aided by expanding clean energy options. However, scientists stress that immediate and deep emission reductions not delayed promises are needed.
Removing CO₂ from the atmosphere could, in theory, help lower long-term warming. But the report warns against banking on these emerging technologies as a guaranteed solution. Scaling them up globally remains uncertain and risky.
“Relying on future carbon removal to undo today’s emissions is dangerous,” Rogelj added. “What we do now has lasting consequences. Every tenth of a degree we prevent saves lives, ecosystems, and livelihoods.”
The authors of the study conclude with a direct call to governments: act now or face consequences that could soon move beyond human control.
The findings are based on the most current emissions data, atmospheric readings, and climate model projections. The report has been peer-reviewed and will inform the next United Nations climate summit.
