TEHRAN, Iran – After nearly two weeks in seclusion, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is expected to surface from hiding into a nation reeling from war, military defeat, and growing unrest. Khamenei, 86, reportedly stayed in a secure underground bunker after Israel began its aerial campaign against Iran’s military and nuclear sites earlier this month.
A fragile ceasefire, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump and Qatar’s Emir, paused the attacks. But the damage inflicted by Israeli forces has exposed deep fractures in Iran’s leadership and armed forces. State media has yet to confirm his location or reappearance, and senior government officials have had no public contact with him during the conflict.
Iranian infrastructure is in ruins. Israeli strikes targeted air defense systems, weapons factories, and known nuclear sites. Key Revolutionary Guard commanders were killed in early strikes. The military, once considered the regime’s shield, is now described by analysts as severely degraded.
“The regime looks weaker than ever. Its capacity to project power has been dealt a serious blow,” said one regional analyst familiar with the situation. “The chain of command has been disrupted. Rebuilding it won’t be quick.”
Khamenei’s decades-long plan to turn Iran into a regional nuclear power now lies in doubt. Airstrikes damaged uranium enrichment facilities and other nuclear infrastructure. Iranian officials claim to have hidden their enriched uranium stockpile, but its condition remains unclear.
Israel’s military confirmed it launched preemptive strikes knowing Iran had more than 2,000 surface-to-surface missiles. Roughly 1,500 may remain. Iran’s missile attacks caused casualties in Israel, prompting a strong Israeli retaliation that expanded over several days.
Inside Iran, civilian life collapsed. Fuel depots exploded. Power and water systems failed. Cities emptied as people fled bombardments. In rural towns, residents opened their homes to displaced families. Citizens shared food, medicine, and shelter in a grassroots response that stood in contrast to the state’s silence.
Public confidence in Khamenei’s leadership has cracked. Many Iranians blame him for pushing the country toward confrontation with Israel and the West. His pursuit of nuclear capabilities despite years of sanctions is now widely seen as a national miscalculation.
“The cost of this war was avoidable,” one resident of Tehran said. “People are angry, not just about the war, but about how little the government did to protect us.”
Iranian state security has responded by tightening control. Authorities have executed six people accused of spying for Israel and detained more than 700 others. The fear now is internal that the regime will retaliate against its own citizens to reassert dominance.
“There’s real risk the government will turn its wrath inward,” another analyst said. “Public anger won’t fade quickly.”
In Qom, Iran’s religious heartland, respected clerics have reportedly been approached by former regime figures urging a leadership transition. While these scholars have stayed silent, their influence could shape what comes next if Khamenei’s health deteriorates.
Some experts believe Khamenei may seek to manage an orderly succession possibly by appointing a leadership council or naming a trusted cleric to take over. But the vacuum left by a weakened supreme leader and battered military opens the door to power struggles within the regime’s elite, especially the Revolutionary Guard.
International concern remains high. Iran’s parliament recently voted to limit cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. If approved, this could move Iran closer to exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. That would escalate tensions with the U.S., Israel, and other global powers.
Despite the ceasefire, many Iranians and foreign observers doubt it will hold. Israeli forces maintain air superiority, and regional intelligence suggests Israel may continue covert operations targeting remaining missile sites and command centers.
Khamenei’s four-decade rule has been marked by suppression of dissent and elimination of rivals. Opposition leaders are jailed or in exile. No unified alternative has emerged. Should the regime fall, there is concern that Iran could spiral into instability rather than transition into a post-theocratic government.
“This isn’t the end, but it feels like a turning point,” said one observer. “Iran won’t be the same again.”
Ayatollah Khamenei may return to the airwaves claiming moral victory. But on the ground, Iranians see a country physically and politically scarred and a leader who vanished when they needed answers.
