NAIROBI —Raila Odinga arrived at Parliament early Thursday for what’s being described as a critical closed-door meeting with Senators over Kenya’s next revenue-sharing formula a debate that has exposed deep divisions among counties.
The meeting, held inside the Senate Chamber and hosted by the Finance and Budget Committee, comes at a pivotal time. With the Fourth Basis Revenue Sharing Formula set to take effect from the 2025/26 financial year, tensions are rising over how much money each of the country’s 47 counties will get.
Mr. Odinga, a long-standing champion of devolution, arrived just after 9.30 a.m. flanked by a small group of advisors. He declined to speak to reporters but nodded as he was ushered inside by committee members.
At the heart of the row is a recommendation by the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA), which had proposed a new set of weightings to divide national funds: population would account for 42 per cent, an equal share for 22 per cent, poverty levels at 14 per cent, land size at 9 per cent, and income distance a measure of inequality at 13 per cent.
To cushion potential losers, the CRA had introduced a so-called stabilisation mechanism to ensure no county received less than what it got in the 2024/25 budget.
But the Senate committee, chaired by Mandera Senator Ali Roba, has rejected the formula.
“Thirty-one counties would end up with less money. That’s unacceptable,” Mr. Roba said in a statement ahead of the meeting. “Our priority is to protect gains made under devolution.”
The committee has instead proposed anchoring the current Sh387.42 billion as a fixed minimum. It also wants to increase the basic share to 35 per cent and raise the population factor to 45 per cent while scrapping the income distance measure altogether.
According to the committee, the CRA’s stabilisation plan lacks transparency. “We cannot use arbitrary figures. Deviation should be based on verifiable scientific models,” said a senior Senate official involved in the talks.
The stakes are high. Governors in more populous counties have backed the CRA’s model, arguing it reflects where services are most needed. Leaders from sparsely populated and historically marginalised areas warn that the new formula could erode hard-won progress in equity.
Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jr., speaking to reporters outside the chamber, said, “We need a formula that balances need with fairness. No county should be left behind but no county should be punished for its growth.”
Thursday’s meeting marked one of the few times Odinga has personally engaged in the technical details of revenue sharing since stepping back from frontline politics after the 2022 election. His presence added weight to the conversation, signaling just how politically sensitive the issue has become.
With less than a year before implementation, the Senate is under pressure to pass a version of the formula that can hold politically and legally and that doesn’t spark a backlash in counties already struggling to stay afloat.
A decision is expected in the coming weeks.
