NAIROBI — Most Kenyans believe Raila Odinga will return to the opposition and run for president in 2027, despite his recent alignment with President William Ruto, a new national poll shows.
According to findings released on Wednesday by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), 28% of Kenyans think the former prime minister will contest the presidency again under the opposition banner. The data reflects growing uncertainty over Raila’s next move, especially after his role in supporting the broad-based government that brought him closer to Ruto.
Unclear future, but public leaning towards candidacy
Raila, now 80, has not confirmed whether he will seek office again. But his past influence and the loyalty he commands in parts of the country keep his name at the centre of Kenya’s political conversation.
“Raila Odinga has remained a key player in Kenyan politics,” said Sylvia Omondi, a political analyst based in Nairobi. “Whether he runs or not, his decisions will have ripple effects.”
The TIFA poll suggests a split in public expectations. While 28% expect him to run, 23% believe he may support President Ruto’s re-election bid. Another 18% think he will throw his weight behind a different opposition candidate.
Only 14% believe Raila will retire from active politics, with the remaining 16% unsure of what path he will take.
Broad-based government remains controversial
The poll also took the public’s pulse on the broad-based government initiative, which brought together figures from both the ruling coalition and opposition ranks in the name of unity.
But not everyone is on board.
More than half of the respondents—54%—said they oppose the idea. Only 22% support the alliance, while 25% said they had no opinion.
“The broad-based government feels like a political arrangement, not a public-driven one,” said Martha Njeri, a university lecturer in political science. “That’s why many Kenyans are sceptical.”
A nation watching closely
With just over two years left before the 2027 general election, Kenyans are watching closely as the country’s major political figures position themselves.
Raila has not ruled out another attempt at the presidency. Yet his increased collaboration with President Ruto—once his fiercest rival—has left many wondering whether the longtime opposition chief is setting the stage for a political twist.
As the country moves forward, one thing remains certain: Raila Odinga is still very much in the picture.
