NAIROBI, Kenya –Confidence in Kenya’s electoral process has plummeted, with just one in five citizens believing the next general election will be free and fair, a new national poll has found.
According to the survey conducted by TIFA (Trends and Insights for Africa), only 20 per cent of Kenyans say they trust the integrity of the 2027 vote. That figure marks one of the lowest public confidence ratings in recent electoral memory.
“We’re seeing a deepening sense of skepticism,” said Tom Wolf, TIFA’s lead researcher, in a briefing following the release of the findings. “It’s not just about politics it’s about livelihoods, and people feeling that their voices no longer matter.”
The poll, conducted between 11 and 15 May, sampled 1,530 respondents across nine regions. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent.
Perhaps more telling than the headline figure is the sharp divide in opinion along political lines. Among those who back the ruling Broad-Based Government (BBG) alliance led by President William Ruto and opposition figure Raila Odinga trust in the electoral process rises to 38 per cent. But among opponents of the alliance, confidence drops dramatically to just 13 per cent.
The survey also found that half of all respondents had “no confidence at all” in the fairness of the upcoming polls.
Political analyst Nerima Wako-Ojiwa said the results should raise alarm bells. “When a large portion of the electorate believes the system is rigged against them, it threatens not just the election itself but democracy as a whole,” she told the media.
Public support for the BBG stands at just 22 per cent, according to the survey. Opposition is more than double that, at 54 per cent, with 25 per cent of respondents choosing to remain neutral.
The strongest pockets of resistance to the BBG were found in Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern regions. In contrast, support was concentrated in Central Rift and Nyanza both traditional strongholds of Ruto and Odinga, respectively.
But politics is only part of the story.
The poll points to mounting economic dissatisfaction as a driving force behind the growing distrust. Three-quarters of Kenyans reported that their personal financial situation has worsened since 2022. Only 14 per cent believe the country is headed in the right direction down sharply from 49 per cent in September last year.
When asked why they felt Kenya was on the wrong path, 45 per cent of respondents cited the rising cost of living. Other top concerns included joblessness, corruption, and poor governance.
For many, the bleak economic picture has blurred the lines between policy and politics.
“People don’t feel heard anymore,” said Mary Njeri, a trader in Nairobi’s Gikomba market. “They see leaders making deals, but nothing changes in our pockets.”
The TIFA poll lands at a delicate time for the government. President Ruto and Odinga’s unity push through the BBG was intended to reduce political tension. But public sentiment, it seems, hasn’t caught up.
As Kenya moves closer to its next national vote, the findings highlight a critical challenge restoring trust not just in institutions, but in the promise of democracy itself.
