VATICAN CITY — The death of Pope Francis has set the Catholic Church on a familiar, solemn path: preparing for a conclave that will select his successor. And while cardinals don’t campaign for the papacy, speculation always swirls around a few who seem to carry the right mix of experience, theology, and trust.
As tradition goes, “He who enters the conclave as pope, exits as cardinal.” It’s a phrase whispered often in Vatican corridors, a nod to the unpredictability of the process. Still, history and personality have their say, and eyes inevitably turn to certain names.
A Familiar European Face
Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary, 72, is one such name. He’s been on the Vatican’s radar for decades, twice elected head of Europe’s bishops. His work has connected him not only with European peers, but with African church leaders as well.
“Erdő is respected across continents,” said a Vatican official familiar with conclave deliberations. “He speaks calmly, thinks clearly, and knows how Rome works.”
His deep involvement in family-focused synods under Francis and his role during papal visits to Budapest have made him a steady, if understated, contender.
The German Question
From Germany, Cardinal Reinhard Marx, 71, is both influential and divisive. A close adviser to Francis early on, Marx was chosen to steer financial reforms at the Vatican. But his support of Germany’s “synodal path” — a dialogue on celibacy, LGBTQ+ inclusion and women’s roles — has unsettled conservatives.
In 2021, he offered his resignation in response to the Church’s abuse crisis in Germany. Francis declined.
“Cardinal Marx is a man of conscience,” said a German Church historian. “But whether that makes him papal material in this climate is another question.”
Diplomatic, Yet Controversial
Italy’s Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is often described as a natural successor. As the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2014, he’s been Francis’s right hand on global affairs — from delicate diplomacy with China to efforts in Venezuela.
But Parolin’s role in a botched real estate deal in London that cost the Vatican tens of millions could come back to haunt him.
“He’s incredibly capable,” said a senior Vatican journalist. “But the conclave may not want baggage.”
The North American Option
Could an American be pope? Historically, that idea has been met with scepticism. Yet Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69, born in Chicago but long active in Peru, is gaining attention.
Francis appointed him to lead the Vatican’s office for bishops — a powerful post shaping leadership worldwide. His Latin American ties and missionary background speak to the global Church’s centre of gravity.
“Prevost is seen as trustworthy and pastoral,” said a Rome-based theologian. “His nationality may be a hurdle. But he’s not a traditional American insider.”
A Conservative Icon from Africa
Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, 79, once seen as the conservative hope for the first African pope, now faces a faded path. He retired in 2021 after clashing repeatedly with Francis, especially over celibacy and liturgy.
His name still stirs strong support among traditionalists. However, his handling of a 2020 book co-authored with Pope Benedict, which many viewed as an attack on Francis, was controversial even among allies.
“Sarah was wounded by that moment,” said a former Vatican adviser. “And the conclave hasn’t forgotten.”
A Voice from Asia
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, has been described as Francis’ spiritual heir. Warm, media-savvy, and deeply connected to the Church’s work in the global South, Tagle runs the Vatican’s evangelisation office.
He often speaks of his Chinese-Filipino roots and tearfully recalls his upbringing. He’s loved by many, especially in Asia and Africa, where Catholic growth continues.
But some cardinals may view him as too young and too close to Francis’ reformist style.
Italy’s Progressive Priest
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, Archbishop of Bologna, is another name rising fast. Deeply engaged in peace efforts — including Francis’ mission to address Russia’s war in Ukraine — Zuppi represents a more progressive wing of the Italian clergy.
He’s closely linked to the Sant’Egidio Community, known for interfaith dialogue and grassroots charity. His support for LGBTQ+ outreach and peace diplomacy aligns him with Francis’ vision.
“Zuppi is the people’s priest,” said an Italian Church insider. “But youth might work against him. Some may prefer a shorter papacy.”
Outliers and Elders
Cardinals Marc Ouellet of Canada and Christoph Schönborn of Austria round out the list. Both are 80 — the age limit for conclave voters. Ouellet brings years of Vatican governance; Schönborn offers intellectual heft and doctrinal experience.
Still, their age likely rules them out for a lifetime papacy. Their voices will shape the choice, but they are unlikely to be the choice.
A Search for Continuity
Pope Francis appointed the vast majority of voting cardinals. That makes it more likely his pastoral, people-first priorities will shape the choice.
Yet conclaves have a habit of surprising. Neither Francis nor John Paul II was a favourite when chosen.
As the cardinals prepare for days of prayer and debate behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel, one thing is clear: the world is watching, and the Church is choosing more than a pope — it’s choosing a future.
