Kenya has thrown its weight behind China’s position on Taiwan, publicly declaring it does not recognise the island’s independence. The announcement came during President William Ruto’s state visit to Beijing this week, where both countries reaffirmed their diplomatic alignment.
“Kenya reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China principle,” read a joint statement released following a high-level meeting between Kenyan and Chinese officials. “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China.”
The statement went further, saying Kenya “resolutely opposes any form of ‘Taiwan independence’.”
A Diplomatic Balancing Act
This stance places Kenya more firmly in Beijing’s corner at a time of heightened global tension over Taiwan. But it also complicates Nairobi’s relationships with Western allies, particularly the United States, which maintains a strategic—albeit unofficial—partnership with the island.
The United States acknowledges the One China policy but continues to support Taiwan through arms sales and high-level visits. Washington has grown increasingly vocal in its backing of Taipei as China’s rhetoric—and military activity—has escalated.
President Ruto’s warm reception in Beijing reflects China’s increasing influence across Africa, where its investments in infrastructure and technology have given it a foothold in several economies. Kenya, heavily reliant on Chinese loans and development partnerships, appears to be deepening that relationship.
But some analysts say this comes with risks.
“Kenya is walking a fine line,” said Dr. Salma Odhiambo, a political analyst at the University of Nairobi. “China is a key economic partner, but the US and EU remain central to Kenya’s trade and development aid. Navigating that without picking sides is becoming harder.”
Tensions Far From Settled
The diplomatic posturing comes as tensions between China and Taiwan continue to mount. Earlier this month, China conducted large-scale military drills surrounding the island from three directions—north, south, and east.
The show of force was widely viewed as a response to newly elected Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a vocal supporter of the island’s autonomy. Chinese state media described Lai as a “parasite,” and Beijing warned of “serious consequences” if Taipei continued pushing for independence.
It wasn’t the first time military muscle had been flexed in the region. In 2022, after the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China launched missile tests and simulated a blockade around the island in what many described as a rehearsal for invasion.
Despite these manoeuvres, Taiwan has refused to bend.
President Lai responded this week, saying: “Taiwan’s future will be decided by its people, not by force, and not by foreign pressure.”
Global Trade, Local Stakes
All of this unfolds against a backdrop of US-China economic sparring. President Donald Trump’s administration recently slapped steep tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering retaliatory moves from Beijing.
With Kenya’s economy closely tied to global trade flows, any disruption between the superpowers could ripple through East Africa’s markets.
“Whether it’s the cost of imports or access to credit, what happens between Washington and Beijing doesn’t stay there,” said economist Peter Murungi of the African Policy Institute. “Countries like Kenya will feel it on the ground.”
For now, President Ruto’s administration seems set on strengthening ties with Beijing. But with the West watching closely—and Taiwan remaining a flashpoint—the path forward may not stay smooth for long.
