Hopes for peace in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo are fading after M23 rebels advanced on the key city of Uvira
Hopes that fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) would ease before the end of the year have been badly shaken after M23 rebels launched a fresh offensive, briefly capturing the strategic city of Uvira.
The advance came barely weeks after a peace deal brokered by Qatar and supported by the United States, raising doubts over whether the agreement can hold and deepening fears of a wider regional conflict.
Since late 2021, M23 fighters have clashed repeatedly with Congolese forces in the country’s mineral-rich east. The violence has killed at least 7,000 people this year and displaced close to one million others. While several regional and international mediation efforts have failed in the past, the Doha talks in November had raised rare optimism among civilians exhausted by years of war.
That optimism quickly faded when M23 forces moved into Uvira earlier this month. The city is a major transport and trade hub in South Kivu province and lies just 30 kilometres from Burundi’s capital, Bujumbura. Although the rebels later withdrew under US pressure, the brief seizure was enough to shatter confidence in the ceasefire.
Analysts say the attack showed a lack of commitment by both sides to fully implement the peace agreement. Many residents now fear the fighting could spread beyond Congo’s borders, a sensitive concern in a region already shaped by past wars involving neighbouring states.
Uvira had been the last major eastern stronghold held by the Congolese army and its allies, including local militias and Burundian troops. Earlier this year, M23 also captured Bukavu and Goma, the capitals of South Kivu and North Kivu provinces.
Experts warn that the group’s growing control widens its influence across eastern Congo and places it near key borders with Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi. The advance also brings M23 closer to the mineral-rich Katanga region, increasing concerns about economic and political motives behind the conflict.
Rwanda continues to deny accusations from the United Nations and the United States that it supports M23. Kigali maintains that its actions are driven by security concerns linked to armed Hutu groups operating in eastern Congo, a claim disputed by several analysts.
The roots of the conflict stretch back decades, shaped by ethnic tensions, weak governance and repeated interference by neighbouring countries. The 1994 genocide in Rwanda pushed millions of refugees into eastern Congo, creating lasting instability and spawning numerous armed groups. M23 itself emerged from earlier rebellions and resurfaced in 2021 with greater military strength.
Multiple peace initiatives have failed. Kenyan-led regional forces withdrew after disagreements with the Congolese government, while a Southern African force pulled out earlier this year after failing to halt rebel advances. Angola-led talks also collapsed amid mutual accusations.
The current peace effort, backed by Qatar and the US, uses parallel talks between Congo and M23, and between Congo and Rwanda. The deal includes ceasefire monitoring and commitments to end support for armed groups. However, fighting resumed even as leaders publicly signed the agreement in Washington earlier this month.
Following the Uvira offensive, Congo said hundreds were killed and more than 200,000 people displaced. Many fled into Burundi, adding pressure to an already fragile humanitarian situation. Medical groups reported cases of bombed villages, killings and sexual violence during the clashes.
Despite M23’s partial withdrawal from Uvira, analysts say the damage to peace efforts is severe. They warn that the agreement lacks clear consequences for violations and appears to leave Congo more exposed than its neighbours.
The renewed violence has also heightened tensions between Rwanda and Burundi, raising fears of direct confrontation. In response to the worsening situation, the UN Security Council extended the mandate of the MONUSCO peacekeeping mission for another year, delaying plans for its withdrawal.
For civilians in eastern Congo, the return to fighting has deepened despair. After decades of war, many say their demands remain simple: safety, stability and the chance to live without fear.
As the year draws to a close, hopes for lasting peace in eastern Congo now appear more uncertain than ever.
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