Rain will be a local affair in Kenya this week. While much of the country is expected to remain dry, eight counties could see showers between August 13 and 20, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The forecast covers Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Nyandarua and Nyeri. The department’s weekly forecasts are designed to provide local guidance on rainfall and temperature conditions for planning and preparedness.
For many other parts of the country, the week is expected to bring predominantly dry weather.
Nairobi and central counties may stay cool
The dry spell does not mean uniformly warm weather.
The Met Department expects intermittent cool and cloudy conditions in parts of Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Nakuru, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Marsabit and Wajir.
Nyandarua and Nyeri appear in both categories. Some areas in the two counties could receive rain while others experience cooler, cloudier conditions.
For residents, the forecast means weather could change quickly over relatively short distances. Farmers, motorists and people working outdoors may need to keep an eye on local forecasts rather than rely on conditions in neighbouring counties.
The Kenya Meteorological Department says its short-term forecasts are intended to support decisions in areas including agriculture, transport and disaster preparedness.
El Niño raises concern ahead of short rains
The immediate outlook comes as attention turns to the October-November-December rainy season.
Kenya is preparing for the possibility of heavier rains linked to a strengthening El Niño. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on August 13 that El Niño was strengthening and had more than a 90 per cent chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter.
That does not mean every part of Kenya will receive heavy rain. Rainfall in the country varies sharply by region, and seasonal climate drivers do not produce the same conditions everywhere.
Kenya’s own meteorological service uses seasonal and regional climate information to guide preparedness for possible floods, droughts and other weather-related risks.
Counties told to prepare for possible flooding
Homa Bay, Kisumu and Nakuru have previously been identified as areas of concern because of rising water levels in several lakes, according to the information provided in the report.
The wider concern is that intense rainfall could increase lake levels and, in some locations, contribute to flooding and displacement.
Experts have warned that the combination of climate drivers could produce an early and intense start to the short-rains season. Such forecasts are warnings for preparedness, rather than predictions that flooding will occur in every high-risk county.
For now, Kenya remains in a largely dry August pattern, with rainfall concentrated in parts of the western highlands and Rift Valley. But the shift towards the October-December season means authorities and communities are being urged to prepare early.
The Met Department continues to issue updated weekly, monthly and seasonal forecasts as conditions evolve.
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