The Kenyan government has flagged 18 counties as high-risk areas as the country prepares for a likely strong El Niño later this year.
Officials warn that the weather pattern, expected to peak from October, could bring a mix of heavy rains, floods and drought in different parts of the country.
The outlook, issued by the Kenya Meteorological Service, points to above-normal rainfall in many regions. Forecasters say there is an 81 per cent chance the event will be strong, and a 97 per cent likelihood its effects will stretch into early next year.
A country of contrasts
Kenya’s geography means the impact will not be uniform. While some areas brace for floods, others may face dry spells and food shortages.
A national risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre outlines a wide range of threats. These include flash floods, landslides, disease outbreaks and damage to roads and homes.
Coastal counties such as Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale are among those expected to face flooding and storm surges. In low-lying areas, entire communities could be displaced.
Around Lake Victoria, counties including Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori may also see rising water levels, alongside heightened risk of waterborne diseases.
Cities under strain
Urban centres are not spared. Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have been singled out as particularly vulnerable.
Blocked drainage systems, overstretched infrastructure and rapid population growth could worsen the impact of heavy rains. Flooding in informal settlements remains a persistent concern.
An official involved in the planning, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said the aim is to “avoid being caught off guard as in previous years”.
Rift Valley and the north-east
In the Rift Valley, counties such as Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok face a more complex outlook. Some areas may experience flash floods and landslides, while others could slip into drought, threatening livestock and food supplies.
Further north, in Garissa, Wajir and Mandera, the risks tilt more towards water scarcity and poor pasture. These regions, already prone to dry conditions, may see worsening food insecurity if rains fail.
Lessons from the past
Kenya has faced severe El Niño events before. The 1997–98 season brought widespread flooding, damaging infrastructure and displacing thousands. More recently, heavy rains in 2023 led to deaths and large-scale displacement in several counties.
Experts say preparation will be key.
A system on alert
Authorities say emergency response teams have been placed on standby. National and county agencies are being briefed on how to respond if the situation worsens.
The government says the list of high-risk counties may be expanded as new data emerges.
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