Nearly two in three Kenyans believe former Deputy President and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua would stand a better chance of defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election by backing a single opposition candidate rather than running himself, according to a new opinion poll by TIFA.
The survey, conducted between June 13 and June 22, sampled 2,048 respondents across nine regions and offers an early snapshot of public opinion as political alliances begin to take shape ahead of next year’s election.
According to the findings, 62 per cent of respondents said Gachagua should throw his weight behind the strongest opposition contender. Only 14 per cent said he should lead the opposition ticket himself, while five per cent believed President Ruto would win regardless of who the opposition fields.
The results point to growing public support for opposition unity, even as the country’s political landscape remains fluid.
TIFA’s research also suggests that President Ruto continues to hold an advantage because opposition support is spread across several potential candidates.
Among opposition figures, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as the fastest-rising politician in the survey. He secured 15 per cent support after registering virtually no backing in a similar measure last year. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i followed with 14 per cent, while Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka received 13 per cent.
One in five respondents said they were still undecided about whom they would support if the election were held today.
President Ruto maintained his strongest backing in Northern Kenya, while regional preferences among opposition figures varied. Sifuna led in Western Kenya, Matiang’i in Nyanza, Kalonzo in Lower Eastern and Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region.
Despite leading the presidential field with 24 per cent support, TIFA said the figures suggest the race remains open.
“While President Ruto is currently the most popular potential presidential candidate, his support standing at only about one-quarter of Kenyans suggests the Opposition still has considerable room to mount a serious challenge in next year’s election,” the research organisation said.
Beyond the presidential contest, the survey found that public opinion remains divided over the Broad-Based Government formed after last year’s political realignments.
More than half of respondents, 52 per cent, said they opposed the arrangement, compared with 30 per cent who supported it.
The poll also highlighted concerns over voter registration. Seventeen per cent of respondents said they had not registered to vote.
Among young adults aged between 18 and 24, many cited the lack of a national identity card as the main barrier to registration. Older respondents, particularly those aged 45 and above, pointed to administrative challenges during the registration process.
The findings come as political parties continue positioning themselves for what is expected to be a fiercely contested election, with coalition building likely to play a decisive role in shaping the final presidential race.
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