When William Ruto was declared Kenya’s fifth president in August 2022, the margin was painfully narrow. Just over 200,000 votes separated him from Raila Odinga — the closest presidential contest the country had ever seen.
For Raila and his supporters, the loss was not just another defeat. It was supposed to be different this time. He had the backing of a sitting president, a broad coalition, access to resources and the weight of the state behind him. Yet he still lost.
More than three years later, that defeat has returned to haunt Azimio — not in courtrooms or rallies, but in public funerals, press statements and social media feuds among its own leaders.
At the heart of the renewed storm is a familiar but explosive question: were Azimio’s agents deliberately or negligently abandoned on election day — and did that cost Raila the presidency?
Edwin Sifuna: Kuanzia leo, mimi ni rafiki wa Wamunyoro. Na hakuna kitu hao washenzi, ikiongozwa na Junet Mohamed, watafanya. ODM siyo mwisho wa dunia. pic.twitter.com/snAaa2QuhP
— Cornelius K. Ronoh (@itskipronoh) January 3, 2026
The election Raila was meant to win
On paper, Raila Odinga entered the 2022 race in a stronger position than ever before. President Uhuru Kenyatta had broken ranks with his deputy to support him. The state machinery appeared aligned. Azimio brought together ODM, Jubilee, Wiper, KANU and several smaller parties.
Yet politics is rarely won on paper.
Ruto ran a relentless, emotionally charged campaign that cast him as the champion of hustlers against an entitled political elite. He invested heavily in grassroots mobilisation, especially in Mount Kenya, where he slowly dismantled Uhuru’s political grip.
When the final tally came in, Ruto scraped past the constitutional threshold. Raila challenged the result at the Supreme Court — and lost again.
For a long time, the explanation for the defeat focused on messaging, voter fatigue, anti-incumbency sentiment and Ruto’s superior ground game. But inside Azimio, another explanation was quietly brewing.
The agents question refuses to die
In Kenyan elections, agents matter. They are the eyes and ears at polling stations — verifying voter turnout, signing result forms and protecting votes at the source.
In early January, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna reignited a dormant debate when he claimed that campaign money meant to pay Azimio’s presidential agents was misused, particularly in Central Kenya. According to Sifuna, the failure to properly deploy agents left Raila exposed in critical areas — contributing directly to the loss.
The figure being thrown around is KSh 500 million, allegedly provided by former President Uhuru Kenyatta to facilitate agent recruitment and payment.
The remarks set off an internal explosion.
Junet fires back — and names names
PRESS STATEMENT
— JUNET MOHAMED, E.G.H, MP. (@JunetMohamed) January 3, 2026
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
I wish to respond to Senator Edwin Sifuna, the ODM Secretary General who moonlights for former President Uhuru Kenyatta within our party and who has challenged me to explain why agents in the 2022 General Election were neither paid nor…
Azimio Minority Leader Junet Mohamed responded with a blistering press statement that shifted blame away from ODM and squarely toward the Kenyatta family.
Junet’s claim is simple but incendiary: the money for agents never went through party structures at all.
According to him, Uhuru Kenyatta released the funds to his brother, Muhoho Kenyatta, who then appointed a man identified as Patrick Mburu — described as an IT expert — to handle agent recruitment and payments.
Junet alleges that the operation was run from a restricted office in Westlands, inaccessible even to Raila Odinga himself. He claims that despite promises and planning, no agents were ultimately deployed, not in Mount Kenya and not even in Raila’s strongholds.
“This was a long con game,” Junet said, daring Uhuru and Muhoho to publicly deny his account.
He also defended his own political standing, arguing that Raila would not have appointed him Minority Leader if he had betrayed the campaign.
Gladly ….
— Sen. Ledama Olekina (@ledamalekina) January 4, 2026
Uhuru's House Meeting (2022)
(Raila + Junet attend + plus others )
|
| Offers KSh 500M for Azimio Agents
v
Did NOT Release to Junet
|
v
Uhuru's Brother
|
v
Patrick Mburu…
What is fact — and what is politics
The truth is uncomfortable for all sides.
There is no publicly available audit, no bank trail and no court finding that confirms where the alleged KSh 500 million went — or whether it even existed in the form being claimed.
There is also no official IEBC report stating that Azimio lacked agents in a way that materially altered the final result.
What exists instead are competing political narratives, surfacing years later, at a moment when Azimio is struggling with relevance, leadership succession and internal trust.
Sifuna’s accusations point to mismanagement within the party.
Junet’s response points to a parallel power centre operating outside it.
Both cannot be true in full — but both speak to a deeper dysfunction.
Why this fight is happening now
This debate is less about 2022 than it is about 2027 and beyond.
Raila Odinga is no longer the unquestioned centre of opposition politics. Azimio is fragmented. Some leaders are warming to cooperation with the government, others are digging in.
In that environment, the 2022 loss has become a political weapon — a way to assign blame, cleanse reputations and redraw internal hierarchies.
Whoever controls the narrative of why Raila lost controls the moral authority of the opposition.
The uncomfortable bottom line
Even if every allegation about agents were proven tomorrow, one truth would remain: Raila Odinga did not lose the election because of one mistake.
He lost because:
- Ruto outworked him in key battlegrounds.
- Azimio underestimated voter anger toward the outgoing government.
- The campaign leaned too heavily on elite endorsements and not enough on popular energy.
- Internal coordination — whether on agents, messaging or trust — was fractured.
The agents’ story may explain part of the margin. It does not explain the whole defeat.
A lesson Azimio is yet to learn
What this controversy ultimately exposes is not sabotage, but the danger of running a national campaign through opaque power structures, informal channels and unchecked trust.
Elections are not won by money alone — or even by state backing. They are won by organisation, clarity and unity at the lowest level.
Until Azimio confronts that reality honestly, the 2022 election will continue to be refought — not against William Ruto, but among themselves.
About the Author
