Kenya and much of East Africa are expected to face a hot and dry December as new climate forecasts point to below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across the region. The outlook, released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, shows weakening short rains and tougher conditions for farming and water supply.
The forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 shows a strong chance of reduced rainfall over Kenya, southern Uganda and most of Tanzania. The shift is linked to a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a possible La Niña, both of which are known to bring dry conditions to East Africa.
Most areas across the equatorial and southern parts of the region will receive less rain than normal. Only a few places in Ethiopia, Kenya and northeastern Somalia are expected to record cooler temperatures, while the rest of the region will experience warmer weather than usual.
In Kenya, the national outlook shows large parts of the northeast, southeastern lowlands and the Coast are likely to see below-average rainfall during the short rains season. The South and Central Rift Valley, Nairobi county, parts of the highlands east of the Rift Valley and sections of Samburu and Marsabit may receive near to below-average rain.
Some areas west of the Rift Valley and parts of the northwest could receive near to above-average rainfall, but experts say this will not change the overall trend of dry conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department says the expected dryness is strongly linked to changes in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole often suppresses rainfall during the short rains, and a possible La Niña could make the situation worse.
The World Meteorological Organization estimates a 55% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, rising to 60% in October to December.
Officials say rainfall will be uneven, with long dry spells, isolated storms and higher temperatures expected across most of the country. Central and eastern Kenya are likely to face the strongest heat increases, while only small areas in the west may remain near normal.
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