A Stronger El Niño Ahead
A major El Niño is taking shape. It is expected to strengthen further. The World Meteorological Organization said the event could reach very strong intensity. Its peak is expected towards the end of 2026.
The warning was issued on Thursday. Global weather risks are expected to rise. El Niño affects winds, rainfall and temperatures. Its effects can be felt far beyond the Pacific.
Risks Could Spread Worldwide
The event is expected to last. There is almost 100 per cent certainty through February 2027. Floods and droughts could become more likely. Extreme heat could also intensify.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned of wider disruption. Communities and economies could face serious pressure.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” Saulo said.
She urged countries to prepare without delay.
Oceans Show Rising Heat
The warning is being driven by ocean conditions. The tropical Pacific has become exceptionally warm. The Niño 3.4 index has risen sharply. It reached 2.2C to 2.6C above average in recent weeks.
Heat below the surface has also been recorded. Some areas were more than 8C above average. Those conditions are supporting further strengthening. A very strong event is therefore being forecast.
2027 Could Feel the Effects
The strongest phase is expected this year. But its climate effects may last longer. Heat stored in the ocean is released slowly. That can influence temperatures in the following year.
The 2023-24 El Niño helped make 2024 the warmest year recorded. Another temperature record cannot be ruled out, WMO said.
No Single Impact Everywhere
El Niño does not affect every region alike. Its effects depend on location and season. Parts of the world may receive heavier rain. Others may face drought and heat.
For September to November, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favoured across almost all land areas. Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift.
Other climate factors could alter the outcome. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to become positive. That could strengthen or change El Niño’s effects.
Local forecasts will therefore remain important.
Preparation Is Urged
Governments have been urged to prepare. Agriculture and water supplies face particular risks. Health and energy systems may also come under pressure. Early warnings could help reduce losses.
WMO said national weather agencies were strengthening preparations.
The message was clear: there is little time to lose.
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