Infotrak Research and Consulting Chief Executive Angela Ambitho has urged Kenyans to treat recent opinion polls as a snapshot of public opinion rather than a forecast of who will win the 2027 General Election.
Speaking on Monday, Ambitho said surveys are designed to capture what people think at a particular moment. She warned against reading too much into findings released more than a year before voters head to the ballot.
The remarks come as political debate intensifies following the release of recent presidential preference polls, with supporters of various candidates pointing to the results as evidence of shifting political fortunes.
“One of the things that has been a hot topic is the 2027 elections,” Ambitho said. “Many people are asking who is likely to win and what Kenyans are really thinking about the elections. Are they already decided, or are they still considering the different options available to them?”
She stressed that the latest survey does not identify a certain winner if the election were held today.
“We don’t really have a definitive winner as of now, if elections were held today,” Ambitho said. “It is important to emphasise that this is not a prediction of the 2027 elections that will happen in August.”
To explain the limits of opinion polling, Ambitho compared surveys to weather forecasts.
“We can forecast what the weather will be today and tomorrow, but we can’t forecast today what the weather will be in August,” she said. “That is really what a poll does. It gives a snapshot based on what people have access to or are privy to right now.”
Her comments suggest that voter preferences remain far from settled. According to Ambitho, a notable share of respondents either declined to discuss the election or said they were still undecided, highlighting the uncertainty that continues to shape Kenya’s political landscape.
“The situation is quite fluid,” she said. “We have an undecided vote, and we also had people who didn’t really want to talk about the elections. That could either mean they are not pleased with the current political discourse, or that they are still trying to make up their minds.”
While the survey identified a candidate leading the presidential race, Ambitho noted that the frontrunner falls short of the constitutional threshold required to secure victory in the first round.
“There is a clear front runner, but that front-runner does not get to 50 plus one,” she said. “We also have a very fragmented base of other political players who, when combined, account for a significant share of support among opposition candidates.”
With more than a year before the 2027 General Election, Ambitho said the race remains open. She suggested that the outcome could depend on whether the current frontrunner broadens support or whether opposition leaders unite behind a single candidate.
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