Kenya is edging closer to a long-awaited milestone in its oil story. The government now says commercial production could begin by the end of 2026, with early output set to scale gradually as infrastructure expands in the oil-rich Turkana region.
Speaking before the Senate, Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi said the South Lokichar project in Turkana County would start modestly before ramping up.
“From the beginning we shall be producing about 20,000 barrels per day, which will progress to some 50,000 barrels per day,” he said. But he cautioned that this is still far below what would be needed to sustain a fully viable refinery.
“Petroleum economics tell us that we need some 300,000, 500,000 barrels per day to run a refinery viably,” he added.
The remarks highlight a familiar tension in Kenya’s oil ambitions: promise on the ground, but limits in scale.
The South Lokichar fields, operated under a partnership involving Gulf Energy, are expected to unlock millions of barrels in recoverable reserves. Plans also include transporting crude to the coast through a pipeline linked to the port of Lamu, positioning Kenya as both a producer and exporter.
Yet the government is also looking beyond its borders for processing capacity.
Wandayi defended plans for a regional refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, arguing that it is more economically realistic than reviving Kenya’s long-idle facility in Mombasa. The Changamwe refinery stopped crude processing in 2013, largely due to ageing infrastructure and commercial challenges. It now functions mainly as a storage site for imported fuel products.
The proposed Tanga refinery, estimated to cost about $20 billion, is expected to serve not just Kenya but neighbouring markets as well. Wandayi described it as a straightforward commercial decision.
“That informs the reason, the justification and the basis for the plan to establish a refinery in Tanga that will not only serve Kenya but also the other neighbouring countries. It’s basically business logic,” he said.
The push comes as East African countries continue to rely heavily on imported fuel, exposing them to global price shocks. Recent geopolitical tensions, including conflicts affecting global supply routes, have repeatedly underscored that vulnerability. For Kenya, the challenge now is turning potential into production. The timeline is ambitious. The stakes, regional.
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