US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet in South Korea on Thursday for their first face-to-face talks in years, a summit that could shape the future of global trade.
Both leaders arrive under pressure. Washington and Beijing have spent months locked in a bitter standoff that has shaken markets, slowed growth, and reignited fears of a global recession.
At the heart of the dispute are the familiar battlegrounds: Tariffs, technology, and trust. The United States recently expanded export controls on high-end semiconductors and defence-linked technologies, moves Beijing has denounced as economic sabotage. In response, China has tightened restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals, vital to industries from electric vehicles to weapons manufacturing.
The escalation has revived memories of the bruising 2018–2019 trade war, only this time, the stakes appear higher. On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1, unless what he calls a “fair deal” is reached.
The encounter will mark Trump’s first in-person meeting with Xi since returning to the White House in January, and their first since the G20 summit in Osaka in 2019.
“Both sides know they can’t afford another collapse but they’re entering these talks with very different political incentives,” said Dr. Mei Lin, a trade economist at the National University of Singapore.
Trump, facing an election year, has made economic nationalism the centrepiece of his agenda, vowing to protect American workers from what he calls “China’s unfair trade tactics.” Xi, meanwhile, is grappling with a slowing Chinese economy and growing pressure at home to project strength abroad.
Their rivalry has stretched far beyond tariffs. What began as a dispute over fentanyl exports, the synthetic opioid devastating US communities, has expanded into a geopolitical contest over technology, agriculture, and energy. American soybean producers have seen exports to China slump, while Beijing’s closer energy ties with Russia have drawn scrutiny in Washington.
“This is no longer just a trade war,” said Robert Keating, a former US trade negotiator now at the Atlantic Council. “It’s a struggle for economic dominance and neither side wants to blink first.”
The November 10 deadline for a new trade truce looms large. Without progress, analysts warn, another tariff escalation could rattle global supply chains and send shockwaves through already fragile markets.
For now, both capitals are keeping expectations low. “We want a fair and reciprocal deal,” Trump told reporters before departing Washington. “If not, we’ll go our own way.”
In Beijing, the Foreign Ministry struck a more measured tone. “China believes dialogue is the right path forward,” spokesperson Mao Ning said on Tuesday. “We hope both sides will meet each other halfway.”
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