Baghdad — The United States is pulling non-essential staff and their families from its embassy in Baghdad, citing growing fears of military conflict with Iran. The decision, confirmed by US officials, marks a significant escalation in Washington’s security posture in the region.
The drawdown comes as US intelligence agencies track signs that Israel may be preparing for military action against Iran. While the Biden administration has not confirmed these plans, officials told News that such a move could prompt Iranian retaliation potentially targeting American interests in Iraq.
“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” a US State Department official told the BBC. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our mission in Iraq.”
The embassy in Baghdad, one of America’s largest in the world, has long operated under tight security. But the partial evacuation points to heightened concern over what could happen if talks over Iran’s nuclear programme fully collapse.
President Donald Trump, speaking Wednesday at the Kennedy Center in Washington, offered a blunt warning. “We’ve advised Americans to leave the region,” he said. “It could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens.”
He added: “We’re not going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.”
That red line has defined US policy toward Tehran across administrations. The problem is that negotiations are now teetering.
Talks between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are still scheduled to take place this weekend in Muscat, according to officials. But expectations are low. On Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Tehran of failing to fully cooperate with its inspections. A recent report criticised Iran for not explaining traces of nuclear material found at previously undeclared sites.
Iran dismissed the findings as biased, claiming they were based on evidence “forged” by Israel.
Meanwhile, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh issued a sharp warning. Should talks fail and Washington opt for military action, he said, “we will strike US bases in the region.”
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth responded by authorising voluntary departure for families of US troops in several Middle Eastern countries, including Kuwait and Bahrain. “We’re seeing plenty of indications that Iran is edging closer to nuclear capability,” he told Congress on Wednesday.
Iran has consistently denied seeking to build a nuclear bomb. Officials insist its uranium enrichment programme is meant for civilian energy use.
Yet, as trust erodes and both sides dig in, the situation risks spiralling.
Oil markets have already reacted. Prices jumped over 4% on Wednesday as news of the evacuation spread. Analysts warn that even a limited military clash could disrupt vital shipping routes in the Gulf. Britain’s Maritime Trade Operations centre issued a notice cautioning vessels to remain on high alert.
About 2,500 US troops remain stationed in Iraq, mostly to support local forces fighting the remnants of the Islamic State group. But they’ve increasingly found themselves caught in a dangerous crosscurrent between Iranian-backed militias and Washington’s shifting regional strategy.
Memories of past flare-ups remain fresh. In January 2020, Iran fired a volley of missiles at bases housing US troops in Iraq after American forces killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. No American deaths were reported, but more than 100 service members suffered brain injuries.
With diplomatic options narrowing and threats multiplying, the question now is whether words and warnings will be enough to hold back a war no one says they want, but all sides seem to be preparing for.
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