Spain and France are about to battle it out for a spot in the Euro 2024 final and the stage is set for Tuesday night, 10 PM (EAT).
Spain has been on fire in this tournament, winning all five matches — no team has ever won six matches in a single European Championship
France coach Didier Deschamps knows that La Roja is in great form, having won 15 of their 19 matches since the beginning of 2023. During this period, Spain’s 79% win rate is the best of all European nations.
Spain’s recent winning streak is partly thanks to the amazing performances of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams.
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Yamal has been outstanding, creating 14 opportunities for his Spain teammates in this competition, which is the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi at Euro 2012 with 25 chances created (Opta).
The Barcelona winger has made three assists from these chances, including a perfectly executed pass for Olmo in their most recent game. No Spanish player has ever assisted more at a single European Championship tournament.
Spain, known for their possession-based style, has been focusing on being more efficient in attack and tougher in defense. In Euro 2024, they had less possession than their opponents in two out of five matches, which is more than in the 44 games they played in major tournaments between the 2006 and 2022 World Cups.
Their main goal is to reach their fifth European Championship final, a record only surpassed by Germany. They’ve made it to the semi-finals five times, reaching the final four times but losing to Italy in the Euro 2020 semi-final on penalties.
France is gunning for its fourth Euros final, having reached this stage in 1984, 2000, and 2016, with only the last one not taking place on French soil (Euro 2000 in the Netherlands).
Unlike the Spanish team, Les Bleus haven’t impressed in this tournament. Deschamps’ squad barely edged past Portugal on penalties after a boring goalless draw, struggling to find the back of the net.
France has only scored four goals in their five Euro 2024 matches (three for, one against), with two being penalties and two own goals.
The team’s difficulty in scoring might be linked to Kylian Mbappé’s performance, as he has only scored once from 20 shots in this tournament, and that was from a penalty against Poland.
Kylian Mbappé has only managed to score once from 34 attempts in the European Championship (3%), while he was able to convert 31% of his shots into goals at the World Cup, scoring 12 times from 39 shots.
On the defensive side, props to Mike Maignan, whose 94% save percentage in this competition is the best among goalkeepers who have played more than once. Expect Maignan to face another tough test on Tuesday.
Head-to-head
These teams have a history in major tournaments, having faced each other five times before. France has had the upper hand, winning three of those encounters, including the Euro 1984 final, the 2000 quarter-final, and the 2006 World Cup round of 16. Spain managed to snag a 2-0 win in the quarter-finals on their way to victory in Euro 2012, and they drew 1-1 in the 1996 group stage.
This semi-final match will be the third time they collide at the World Cup and Euros. The stats from 10,000 pre-match simulations slightly favour Spain to win, with a 38.2% chance, with France at 31.8%. The remaining 30% of simulations predict a draw, so we might see some extra time action.
Predicted Line-up: Spain vs France Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
(Stats provided by Opta Analyst)
