Vladimir Putin’s Master Plan for Ukraine, Factoring it with US 2024 Elections

US and European officials are expressing growing concern over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, speculating that he may be factoring the 2024 US presidential election into his war planning.

According to four anonymous US officials, Putin is hoping for a Joe Biden loss next year, anticipating that it will prompt the US to reduce its support for Ukraine and potentially improve Russia’s negotiating position.

While there is no explicit intelligence on Putin’s mindset, top Western national security, intelligence, and diplomatic officials believe that the upcoming election will influence his decisions in Ukraine, making a resolution of the conflict before the end of next year increasingly unlikely.

A poll conducted by SSRS reveals that most Americans are against Congress providing additional funding to support Ukraine, reflecting a divided opinion on the US’s involvement in the conflict.

One US official asserted, “I have no doubt that Putin is trying to hold out until the 2024 election.”

Another source familiar with the intelligence said, “It’s sort of the elephant in the room” for the US, Ukraine, and Europe.

Read also: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Unraveling Putin’s Motives and Geopolitical Factors

A European diplomat concurred, stating that they believe Putin’s plan is to wait out the war until the US election.

Officials speaking to CNN on condition of anonymity believe that Putin may be banking on a victory for Donald Trump or another Republican candidate, as they believe this would lead the US to scale back its support for Ukraine.

Such a scenario has driven European efforts to send more powerful arms to Ukraine to shift the battlefield momentum before the election.

Daniel Fried, former US ambassador to Poland, highlighted the importance of maintaining long-term support for Ukraine, regardless of the election’s outcome.

He stated, “The election next year complicates things because the Russians think they have a light at the end of the tunnel. It encourages Putin to think that they can outlast the Americans because political support for Ukraine will be compromised if Trump wins.”

The looming US election is also a major concern for Ukrainians, who are hoping to achieve significant gains on the battlefield in the short-term to impact the dynamics before the election.

Read also: The Battle for America: Trump’s Dominance & America’s Political Trauma

Bill Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine, emphasized the urgency for Ukraine, stating, “The Ukrainians want to win or have something that changes the dynamic before late this year. There are all sorts of reasons for their urgency – such as Ukrainians dying every day – but the US presidential election is one of them.”

However, despite the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, major breakthroughs have not yet been achieved.

Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder acknowledged the tough fight, stating, “It has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.”

To address the conflict, Saudi Arabia is set to host peace talks this weekend, which will include the US and several Western and developing countries. The focus will be on developing shared principles to end the war and discussing security assistance for Kyiv to deter future Russian aggression.

State Department spokesperson Matt Miller emphasized that these talks are not expected to yield immediate concrete deliverables but are intended to maintain an ongoing conversation towards a just and lasting peace.

While Russia will not participate in the talks, experts are concerned about whether Putin would abide by any ceasefire or peace agreement. US officials believe that pressure from countries in the global south, particularly larger countries like India, could make a difference in influencing Russia’s stance on the battlefield.

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