By Mujidu Victor
Azimio Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga has
consolidated votes from 20 Counties out of the 47 Counties. They
include Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit,
Makueni, Machakos, Kitui, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay,
Migori, Nyamira and Nairobi County.
While his main rival William Ruto controls 16
Counties out of the 47. These include Isiolo, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Kiambu,
Murang’a, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kericho, Bomet, Baringo,
Nandi and Elgeyo-Marakwet.
The recent opinion polls by Info
Track opinions reveal that Azimio’s Presidential Candidate consolidates the
highest number of votes at 42% in his 20 counties, a percentage which is
equivalent to 9.3 million votes.
Kenya Kwanza Presidential Candidate
William Ruto closely follows with 38%, a percentage equivalent to 8.4 million
votes in his16 leading counties.
Raila’s popularity flourished in
35 counties while Ruto leads his popularity in 38 counties, both having a
similar percentage, 25%.
However, this becomes a setback
because both do meet the 25% threshold but miss the 50+1% as stipulated in the
Kenyan Constitution.
The political bonfire is examined
regionally where Ruto holds eel by the tail in the Mt. Kenya region where both
scramble for a stake to bag.
The Info Track opinion shows the
Mt. Kenya region to be Ruto’s bedroom because he leads in the all-mountain
region.
“In mountain region, Ruto is
leading in all counties that is Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua,
Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri and Kirinyaga county. Ruto gathered all in the mountain
and scattered none,” said the CEO Angela Ambitho.
Raila on the other hand
consolidates the Nyanza region votes where Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, and
Nyamira become his stronghold backyard.
In the Northern region, Raila
controls votes from Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Marsabit while Ruto becomes
the special envoy of Isiolo votes.
In the Coast region, Ruto suffers
a big slide after the polls stated that Raila spearhead votes from three
counties, Mombasa, Kilifi, and Taita-Taveta.
“After having done the research,
we found that Ruto is less popular in coastal counties. Raila therefore, taking
the lead in Mombasa, Kilifi, and Taita-Taveta county,” she added.
However, due to Kalonzo’s maximum
output in the Azimio coalition, he managed to centralize the lower Eastern
votes and thus, making Raila emerge as the most popular candidate than his
close opponent William Ruto.
“Raila is leading in the three
counties of lower eastern that is Makueni, Machackos, and Kitui and this became
duable after Kalonzo joined back to Azimio,” said Angela.
Kalonzo’s initial decision of
bolting out from the Azimio-Oka coalition interfered with the numbers and left
almost 21% undecided. This however contributes to the unsettled 50+1% threshold
required for one to be the president of the Republic of Kenya.
“Kalonzo’s undecisive moment
brought confusion to the lower eastern voters and hence caused a significant
figure of 21% voters undecided,” said Mrs Angela.
Regional votes consolidation
The Info Track research platform
analyzed the votes region-wise and found that in the Nyanza region, Raila
Odinga is leading with 73% while Ruto has 12%. In Nairobi County, Raila is
tilting the merging with 50% while William Ruto scores 30%.
In the Coastal region, Raila
becomes a bigwig with a 49% score against his opponent William Ruto who scores
29%. In the northern region, Raila flags with 49% against Ruto who bags 32% of
the votes.
In the Western region, Raila holds
48% of the votes while Ruto controls 28%. In lower eastern, Raila shielded 41%
of the votes, Ruto holds 32%, and 21% were left undecided due to Kalonzo’s
mixed signals.
In the Mt. Kenya region, Ruto
breaks the record by scoring 52% against his opponent Raila Odinga who scores
27% of the mountain votes. In the South Rift, Ruto still emerged as the top
scorer with 59% while Raila scores 25%. North Rift, Ruto slashed Raila
with 56% votes against 20%.
11 counties serving as Battling ground
While Raila and Ruto tilting the
margin in the 20 and 16 counties respectively, they still have to pull their
muscles hard in the remaining eleven counties that serve as a no man’s land.
Among the counties are three coast
region counties; Tana-River, Kwale, and Lamu. Turkana county which is located
in the northeast is also considered a battleground between the two though Raila
leads with a slight margin.
In the South Rift counties; Narok
and Kajiado are also stipulated to be among the hot space areas to toil for
many votes.
North Rift counties; Samburu,
Nakuru, West-Pokot including the Western region counties; Bungoma and
Trans-Nzoia serve among the 11 counties yet to decide their favourite
presidential candidate.
According to the
CEO Angela Ambitho, anyone who will gain political momentum in the 11 counties
will achieve the 50+1 votes.
