The 30th session of the (COP30) to the (UNFCCC) has opened in the Amazonian city of Belém, Brazil, where world leaders and negotiators tackle some of the most pressing questions facing the climate agenda today.
Why this COP matters
Signed in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, the UNFCCC binds nations to contain “dangerous climate change,” but left the “how” largely open. Under the key outcome of COP21 in 2015, countries must submit every five years a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that outlines their emissions-cutting plans. Two cycles in, the world is not yet on pace for the 1.5 °C goal scientists say is essential.
According to UN assessments, current NDCs would reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by about 10% by 2035, far below the roughly 60% cuts needed for a credible chance at 1.5 °C. These aligned plans still point to a temperature rise of about 2.5 °C. COP30 is expected to build a clearer pathway from these inadequate pledges toward greater ambition.
Key issues on the table
- Emissions-cuts and the 1.5°C target: Scientists caution that exceeding 1.5 °C risks triggering tipping points and irreversible changes. Brazil’s presidency of COP30 seeks to find realistic plans for tightening the NDCs and turning aspirations into action.
- Finance: Following contentious negotiations at COP29, where developed nations and emerging economies argued heavily over funding, COP30 must advance the goal of $1.3 trillion per year flowing to the developing world by 2035. This includes a pledge of $300 billion from developed countries. Brazil has ushered in the “Baku-to-Belém Roadmap”, but none of its recommendations are yet binding.
- Fossil fuels: While COP28 concluded with language to “transition away” from fossil fuels, details and timelines remain vague. For many oil- and gas-producing countries, this remains a non-starter. Brazil faces a delicate balancing act as host, given its strong biofuels and energy-sector interests.
- Tropical forests and climate justice: Hosting COP in the Amazon, Brazil is highlighting the new “Tropical Forests Forever Facility”, a fund aiming to raise $125 billion (with an initial target of $25 billion) to reward forest conservation in developing countries. The UK and US have yet to make major commitments, complicating the fundraising effort.
- Ethics, Indigenous voices and justice: COP30 introduces the “Global Ethical Stocktake”, a first-of-its-kind process intended to assess not only climate policy but also moral, cultural and social justice aspects of climate change, including how Indigenous peoples, women and children are affected.
- Methane, biofuels and land use: Methane emissions, responsible for a large share of near-term warming remain under-addressed. Brazil’s biofuel expansion plans raise concerns about land use, ecosystem damage and carbon trade-offs.
What’s at stake
With world leaders absent in many cases and geopolitical tensions high, COP30 may be judged on whether it simply avoids collapse, or produces meaningful commitments and momentum. Brazil’s message is that multilateralism still works, but the global climate architecture faces serious tests.
The outcomes here will ripple through the next decade, affecting energy transitions, forest conservation, global equity and the very shape of production, trade and development. For many communities already suffering from climate extremes and food insecurity, every delayed ambition deepens the risk of irreversible harm.
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