MOSCOW — President Donald Trump’s threat to slap Russia with severe trade penalties if it fails to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days sparked surprise not panic in Moscow.
Despite stern rhetoric from the White House, Russia’s stock market jumped 2.7% on the day of the announcement, signaling relief that harsher immediate measures had not been imposed.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office on Monday, pledged new U.S. military aid to Ukraine, funded by European NATO members, and warned of 100% secondary tariffs against any country still doing business with Russia if Moscow refuses to agree to a ceasefire deal within the set window.
But the delay gives the Kremlin time to respond. “We’re looking at everything on the table, but this isn’t tomorrow,” a senior U.S. official clarified.
Moscow’s reaction appeared calm. Russian media, which had braced for more aggressive moves, quickly noted the gap between Trump’s words and immediate consequences. The tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets wrote, “Trump’s Monday surprise will not be pleasant for our country,” but later pointed to the 50-day grace period as a sign that Russia had room to maneuver.
This marks a clear shift in tone from Trump, who had previously sought a cooperative relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The White House has consistently said peace in Ukraine is a foreign policy priority.
Trump expressed disappointment in Putin during a press interview on the same day. “I’m disappointed in him, but I’m not done with him,” Trump said. “We’ll talk. I’ll think we’re close to a deal, and then he’ll bomb a building in Kyiv.”
Russia, for its part, has continued to signal a desire for peace but insists that certain conditions must be met first. Among its demands: an end to Western weapons shipments to Ukraine and the halting of Ukrainian military mobilization.
The Kremlin blames “external threats” from Kyiv, NATO, and what it calls “the collective West” for the war. However, the invasion of Ukraine was launched by Russian forces in February 2022 marking the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
Analysts tracking the conflict say Russia has adopted a “yes, but” posture for months agreeing in principle to peace while attaching terms Western leaders view as unreasonable. That approach has helped Moscow avoid deeper sanctions while continuing battlefield operations.
Trump’s past willingness to explore diplomatic solutions bought the Kremlin time. Monday’s announcement signals that patience may be wearing thin.
The new weapons package includes Patriot missile batteries systems urgently needed by Ukraine to counter long-range Russian attacks. European governments will cover the cost, while the U.S. oversees delivery.
The tariffs, if imposed, would hit Russia’s trading partners by making exports to the U.S. significantly more expensive. Energy remains Moscow’s biggest source of revenue. Oil and gas account for over 60% of Russia’s export earnings and nearly a third of the national budget.
Despite sanctions, Russia continues to generate more than $300 billion annually from fossil fuel exports. Roughly one-third of that comes from NATO member states.
President Vladamir Putin has not signaled any major change in stance since Trump returned to office in January. Instead, Russia’s leadership appears to believe it holds a battlefield advantage and that time favors its position.
In Russian state media, criticism of Trump has grown. Moskovsky Komsomolets noted bluntly, “[Trump] clearly has delusions of grandeur. And a very big mouth.”
Back in Washington, the Biden-era strategy of pressuring Moscow with immediate penalties has given way to Trump’s deadline-driven approach. Whether this 50-day window leads to peace or more escalation remains uncertain.
For now, the Kremlin appears more relieved than rattled.
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