BEIJING — China’s economy expanded by 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, outperforming most forecasts despite pressure from faltering real estate markets and a renewed tariff threat from the United States.
The growth, measured year-over-year from April to June, surpassed the 5.1% projection by economists but came in below the 5.3% registered in the first quarter. The data, released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signals that the world’s second-largest economy remains resilient even as external and domestic challenges mount.
The NBS said the economy “withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges.” Growth was primarily supported by stronger output in manufacturing and modest gains in the services sector.
Manufacturing rose by 6.4% during the quarter, driven by increased demand for electric vehicles, 3D printing systems, and industrial automation equipment. The services industry, covering sectors such as technology, finance, and logistics, also recorded sustained activity.
However, June data painted a mixed picture. Retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, down from 6.4% in May, while new home prices declined at the fastest monthly pace in eight months. The drop highlights ongoing strain in China’s property sector despite multiple government efforts to stabilize prices.
The property market, long a pillar of China’s domestic economy, continues to drag on broader recovery efforts. Developers face high debt burdens, and consumer confidence in real estate remains weak despite stimulus measures.
While fears lingered over the impact of U.S. tariffs, analysts said China’s economy has so far remained stable, in part because of a trade truce and exporters pushing shipments ahead of potential tariff changes.
Gu Qingyang, an economist based in Singapore, said growth was aided by exporters rushing to fulfill orders ahead of expected policy shifts. “That front-loading effect helped support exports,” he noted. “But the second half of the year may look more uncertain.”
The trade standoff between Washington and Beijing remains unresolved. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to reimpose tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. In retaliation, Beijing announced duties of 125% on specific U.S. imports. Negotiators from both countries are working under an August 12 deadline to finalize a long-term deal.
Some analysts believe China can still meet its official growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, though others are more cautious. Dan Wang of Eurasia Group told the press, “The real question is by how much. We believe it will defend a floor of 4%, which remains the minimum politically acceptable level.”
Despite trade uncertainty and property market concerns, China’s ability to post above-expectation growth has given Beijing more room to navigate the months ahead. But the path forward remains clouded by geopolitical risks and domestic headwinds.
Whether policymakers introduce further economic stimulus will likely depend on how the third quarter unfolds and whether the fragile trade truce with Washington holds.
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