TEL AVIV/TEHRAN — A fragile calm may be on the horizon after 12 days of deadly fighting between Israel and Iran. On Monday evening, former U.S. President Donald Trump declared that both countries had agreed to a ceasefire deal though fighting appeared to continue even after the announcement.
Missiles were reportedly launched from Iran toward central Israel early Tuesday, according to Israeli military officials. Explosions were heard near Tel Aviv and Beersheba. Local media said one building was hit and three people were killed in Beersheba.
Despite Trump’s confident message, neither Israel nor Iran formally confirmed a complete halt to hostilities. “On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both countries… on ending what should be called ‘THE 12 DAY WAR’,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account.
But hours later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi gave a more cautious tone. He said Tehran would stop its response only if Israel halted its attacks no later than 4 a.m. local time. “The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later,” he wrote on X.
There have been no confirmed Israeli strikes on Iran since then.
A White House official told reporters that Trump had spoken directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to broker the deal. The official added that Israel agreed to pause its campaign, on the condition that Iran refrains from further attacks.
The ceasefire plan appears to allow both sides time to wrap up ongoing operations before it fully takes effect. However, Israeli authorities have not officially declared an end to their air raids.
Israel’s military had earlier targeted Iran’s underground nuclear sites, joined over the weekend by U.S. bombers dropping 30,000-pound “bunker busters”. The strikes came amid Israeli allegations that Iran was nearing nuclear weapon capability.
Iran insists it has no nuclear weapons programme. But its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has warned that “if we wanted to, no one could stop us”.
Israel, widely believed to possess nuclear arms though it neither confirms nor denies this, is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, also played a behind-the-scenes role. According to sources familiar with the talks, he secured Iran’s agreement during a call with Tehran.
The Biden administration’s Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly maintained contact with both sides at times indirectly.
No comments have yet come from Iran’s U.N. mission or the Israeli embassy in Washington.
Inside Israel, there are signs that its leadership is preparing for de-escalation. Local media reported that Netanyahu ordered his ministers not to speak publicly after a late-night cabinet meeting.
But peace remains fragile. Early Tuesday, sirens blared in Israel’s Golan Heights due to suspected enemy aircraft. Evacuation warnings were also issued twice to parts of Tehran in less than 24 hours.
Despite this, financial markets showed cautious optimism. Wall Street futures edged higher late Monday, while U.S. crude oil prices dipped amid easing fears of Middle East supply shocks.
Earlier Monday, Trump thanked Iran for giving advance notice before launching 14 missiles at a U.S. base an attack he described as “a very weak response… which we expected”.
His remarks highlighted Tehran’s delicate balancing act retaliate enough to show strength, but not so much as to risk full-scale war. So far, it seems Iran has hit that middle ground.
Most of Tehran’s population some 10 million people has fled the city in recent days, following relentless bombing.
Trump’s team insists their goal was limited to dismantling Iran’s nuclear capability. “Now Iran is incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because we destroyed it,” Vice President Vance claimed during a Fox News interview.
Still, U.S. intelligence agencies had earlier assessed that Iran was not actively building a bomb. That stance reportedly remained unchanged as of last week, according to a source with access to American intelligence.
Yet on Sunday, Trump suggested toppling Iran’s hardline rulers. That rhetoric has fuelled speculation about deeper ambitions.
Meanwhile, Israel has made little effort to hide its broader targets. Strikes on Evin Prison and other symbolic locations in Tehran have raised fears the conflict was aimed at undermining Iran’s governing system itself.
